Policy Simulation Research on Carbon Emissions Trading and Green Certificate Trading Systembased on dynamic CGE model

In order to simulate and study the impact of carbon emissions trading and green certificate trading policies on the economy, this paper introduces the "energy-policy" module to embed the cost and benefit of policies into the model, and constructs a computable dynamic general equilibrium model of China's energy market to simulate the effect of carbon emissions trading and green certificate trading system. The results show that different carbon emission reduction targets have different impacts on macroeconomic and industrial output. In the macro economy, the strict carbon emission reduction policy may have a certain negative impact on the economy, resulting in the rise of carbon price. In terms of industrial output, the carbon emission reduction policy can optimize the industrial structure of the intermediate sector to a certain extent, and inhibit the development of industries with high carbon emissions such as petroleum, chemical industry and steel. Based on the substitution effect of energy elements, the output of the new energy industry is improved, and then the energy structure is optimized. The research in this paper provides new theoretical evidence for energy transformation and upgrading under the policy background of implementing carbon emissions trading and green certificate trading system.