The Contribution of Power Industry to Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutralization in Hebei Province and Its Influence Effect

This paper, based on the STIRPAT model and scenario analysis method, predicts the carbon emissions of the electric power industry and the whole Hebei Province from 2020 to 2060, and analyzes the carbon peaks of the electric power industry and the whole Hebei Province under their respective nine development modes. Then, according to the historical carbon absorption of Hebei Province, four scenarios are made for the future change of carbon absorption. Through the analysis of carbon emissions and carbon absorption in Hebei Province, the carbon neutralization in Hebei Province under different scenarios is obtained. The results show that the power industry in Hebei Province can achieve the carbon peak by 2030 under the eight modes. Hebei Province can achieve the 2030 carbon peak in six modes. Under the corresponding combination mode, the carbon peak time of Hebei power industry is always not later than the overall carbon peak time of Hebei Province, and the proportion of carbon emissions in the total power industry continues to decline after the peak. In the vast majority of cases, Hebei Province can achieve the carbon neutrality target of 2060, with carbon neutrality time between 2031 and 2058. Finally, policy suggestions are put forward for Hebei Province to successfully achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization.