电力行业对河北省碳达峰与碳中和目标的贡献度及影响效应研究

The Contribution of Power Industry to Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutralization in Hebei Province and Its Influence Effect

  • 摘要: 基于STIRPAT模型,结合情景分析法对2020—2060年河北省电力行业和河北省整体碳排放进行分析和预测,分析电力行业和河北省各自在9种发展模式下的碳达峰情况,再根据河北省历史碳吸收量对未来碳吸收量变化情况作出4种情景假设,通过分析河北省碳排放量和碳吸收量得到不同情景下河北省的碳中和情况。结果表明:在8种模式下河北省电力行业能实现2030年碳达峰目标;在6种模式下河北省能实现2030年碳达峰目标。在对应的组合模式下,河北省电力行业碳达峰时间总是不晚于河北省整体碳达峰时间,且电力行业碳排放占总量的比重都在达峰后持续下降;在绝大多数情况下河北省都能实现2060年碳中和目标,碳中和时间在2031—2058年之间。最后为河北省顺利实现碳达峰和碳中和目标提出政策建议。

     

    Abstract: This paper, based on the STIRPAT model and scenario analysis method, predicts the carbon emissions of the electric power industry and the whole Hebei Province from 2020 to 2060, and analyzes the carbon peaks of the electric power industry and the whole Hebei Province under their respective nine development modes. Then, according to the historical carbon absorption of Hebei Province, four scenarios are made for the future change of carbon absorption. Through the analysis of carbon emissions and carbon absorption in Hebei Province, the carbon neutralization in Hebei Province under different scenarios is obtained. The results show that the power industry in Hebei Province can achieve the carbon peak by 2030 under the eight modes. Hebei Province can achieve the 2030 carbon peak in six modes. Under the corresponding combination mode, the carbon peak time of Hebei power industry is always not later than the overall carbon peak time of Hebei Province, and the proportion of carbon emissions in the total power industry continues to decline after the peak. In the vast majority of cases, Hebei Province can achieve the carbon neutrality target of 2060, with carbon neutrality time between 2031 and 2058. Finally, policy suggestions are put forward for Hebei Province to successfully achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization.

     

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