Abstract: Based on the systemicity and complexity of the influencing factors of agricultural net carbon sinks, according to the agricultural data of Hebei Province from 2000 to 2019, comprehensively considering relevant indicators from internal driving and external environment, the VECM model is used to analyze the factors affecting agricultural net carbon sinks in Hebei Province. The results show that in the short term, there is an increase in the total agricultural production, the total power of agricultural machinery, the area of soil erosion control, the total export of agricultural products, the total amount of water resources and the agricultural water consumption, and a reduction in the affected area of ​​arable land; in the long run, the increase in the total export of agricultural products, total water resources and agricultural water consumption will have a negative impact on the development of net carbon sinks. Finally, based on the analysis results, policy recommendations for the sustainable development of low-carbon agriculture in Hebei Province are put forward.