郭森, 张凯文, 祁泽. 基于DCC-GARCH-ΔCoVaR模型的碳市场和煤炭市场风险溢出效应研究[J]. 华北电力大学学报(社会科学版), 2023, 4(5): 21-30, 131. DOI: 10.14092/j.cnki.cn11-3956/c.2023.05.002
引用本文: 郭森, 张凯文, 祁泽. 基于DCC-GARCH-ΔCoVaR模型的碳市场和煤炭市场风险溢出效应研究[J]. 华北电力大学学报(社会科学版), 2023, 4(5): 21-30, 131. DOI: 10.14092/j.cnki.cn11-3956/c.2023.05.002
GUO Sen, ZHANG Kai-wen, QI Ze. Research on Risk Spillover Effects of the Carbon Market and Coal Market Based on the DCC-GARCH-ΔCoVaR Model[J]. JOURNAL OF NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIVERSITY(SOCIAL SCIENCES), 2023, 4(5): 21-30, 131. DOI: 10.14092/j.cnki.cn11-3956/c.2023.05.002
Citation: GUO Sen, ZHANG Kai-wen, QI Ze. Research on Risk Spillover Effects of the Carbon Market and Coal Market Based on the DCC-GARCH-ΔCoVaR Model[J]. JOURNAL OF NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIVERSITY(SOCIAL SCIENCES), 2023, 4(5): 21-30, 131. DOI: 10.14092/j.cnki.cn11-3956/c.2023.05.002

基于DCC-GARCH-ΔCoVaR模型的碳市场和煤炭市场风险溢出效应研究

Research on Risk Spillover Effects of the Carbon Market and Coal Market Based on the DCC-GARCH-ΔCoVaR Model

  • 摘要: 基于武汉、广东、深圳碳市场和煤炭市场的收益率数据,运用DCC-GARCH模型刻画碳市场和煤炭市场收益率的非线性相关性,进而基于上述模型得到的参数,运用ΔCoVaR模型测算出碳市场和煤炭市场间的风险溢出效应。结果表明:在碳市场建设初期,碳市场和煤炭市场的风险溢出效应主要表现为煤炭市场对碳市场的单向风险溢出效应。随着市场的不断完善,煤炭市场与碳市场之间会产生双向的风险溢出效应;煤炭市场对武汉碳市场表现为正向的风险溢出效应,对广东和深圳碳市场表现为负向的风险溢出效应。

     

    Abstract: In order to explore the risk spillover effect between the coal market and the carbon market, the yield data of Wuhan, Guangdong and Shenzhen carbon markets and the coal market are used to characterize the nonlinear correlation between the carbon market and the coal market yield by using the DCC-GARCH model. Based on the parameters obtained by the above model, the risk spillover effect between the carbon market and the coal market is calculated by using the ΔCoVaR model. The results show that at the initial stage of the construction of carbon market, the risk spillover effect of carbon market and coal market is mainly manifested as one-way risk spillover effect of coal market on carbon market. With the continuous improvement of the market, two-way risk spillover effect will be generated between coal market and carbon market. The coal market has a positive risk spillover effect on Wuhan carbon market and a negative risk spillover effect on Guangdong and Shenzhen carbon markets.

     

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