京津冀城市群新旧动能转换的协同网络结构与形成机制研究基于电力消费数据的经验证据

The Synergy Network of Structural Transformation: Connectivity, Structure, and Driving FactorsEvidence from Electricity Consumption in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

  • 摘要: 基于京津冀城市群电力消费数据,本文构建新旧动能转换协同关系并刻画其空间网络结构,旨在解释协同网络在连通性增强的同时,协同强度提升与跨区域扩散的实现机制。首先,网络层面结果显示协同联系在样本期内总体扩展,整体连通性较强,但网络密度仍处于相对较低水平且结构集中度较高,表明协同关系的生成与强化更多依赖少数关键节点。其次,结构层面基于中心性与块模型的分析表明网络呈现核心、枢纽与边缘的角色分化以及净溢出、净受益与双向互动并存的板块分工格局,北京和天津发挥关键引领与核心集聚作用,唐山等城市的枢纽功能上升,部分边缘城市协同参与相对有限,从而为网络密度提升的结构约束提供了解释。最后,机制层面QAP结果表明,创新邻近即研发投入相近与地理邻近显著促进协同关系形成与强化。基于上述发现,本文提出以跨市共同产出为导向的联合研发与联合示范激励机制、以枢纽城市为载体的成果共享与扩散机制,并建议以防范高耗能产业同构引致的同质化竞争风险为导向,优化错位分工与要素流转规则,以提升协同关系质量并促进区域新旧动能转换的联动发展。

     

    Abstract: Utilizing electricity consumption data from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, this study constructs a synergistic network for the transition from old to new growth drivers and delineates its spatial network structure. The research aims to explain the mechanisms through which the synergy network achieves enhanced connectivity, increased synergy intensity, and cross-regional diffusion. The analytical framework progresses sequentially from characterizing the phenomenon and interpreting the structure to identifying the underlying mechanisms. First, at the network level, the results indicate that synergistic linkages expanded overall over the sample period, and that overall connectivity is strong. However, network density remains relatively low, and structural concentration is high, suggesting that the formation and strengthening of synergistic ties rely heavily on a few key nodes. Structurally, analyses based on centrality and block models reveal a distinct role differentiation into core, hub, and peripheral cities, as well as a sectoral division characterized by the coexistence of net-spillover, net-beneficiary, and bidirectional-interaction blocks. Beijing and Tianjin play pivotal leading and core agglomeration roles, while the hub functions of cities like Tangshan are rising. In contrast, participation from some peripheral cities remains limited, which explains the structural constraints on increasing network density. At the mechanism level, the QAP regression results show that innovation proximity—that is, similarity in R&D investment—and geographical proximity significantly promote the formation and strengthening of synergistic linkages. Based on these findings, this paper proposes an incentive mechanism for joint R&D and joint demonstration oriented toward cross-city co-production and a hub-city-based mechanism for sharing and diffusing outcomes. In addition, given that the estimated coefficient on structural isomorphism in energy-intensive sectors is negative but statistically insignificant across all sample years, it recommends optimizing rules for differentiated specialization and factor mobility to guard against the risk of homogeneous competition. These measures aim to enhance the quality of regional synergistic relationships and advance the coordinated development of the transition from old to new growth drivers.

     

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