大型水电工程移民安置中的“翻烧饼”现象研究

Study on the Phenomenon of ‘Turning over Shaobing’ in Resettlement of Large Hydropower Projects

  • 摘要: “翻烧饼”现象在水电工程建设征地移民安置中长期存在。依据大量水电征地移民工程实践,总结提出“翻烧饼”现象的表现类型,剖析现象产生的主要原因,并基于囚徒困境重复博弈模型,对“翻烧饼”现象中博弈双方的策略变化方向进行研究,将分析成果应用于新形势下我国水电开发移民安置形势判断,研究表明:重复博弈打破了囚徒困境中的唯一理性选择困局,在多轮次博弈中,博弈双方可以做出大量的策略变化选择,从而使得一些重大移民安置事项的解决时间进一步拉长。在后续水电开发中,要警惕重大移民安置事项因重复博弈进入两种僵局。

     

    Abstract: The phenomenon of ‘turning over Shaobing' has long existed in land acquisition and resettlement for hydropower project. Based on number of hydropower land acquisition and resettlement projects, this paper summarizes and puts forward the types of manifestations of the phenomenon of ‘turning over Shaobing', analyzes the main reasons for the phenomenon, and studies the direction of strategic changes of both players in the phenomenon by the repeated game model of the prisoner's dilemma, and the analysis results are used to judge the future resettlement situation . The research shows that the repeated game breaks the dilemma of the only rational choice in the prisoner's dilemma. In the multi round game, both players can have a large number of strategic choices, which further lengthens the time to solve some important resettlement issues. In the subsequent hydropower development, we should be wary of major resettlement issues entering two deadlocks due to repeated games.

     

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