中国航运绿色转型的可行性研究基于特定港口的成本、排放及政策

A Feasibility Study on the Green Transition of China’s Shipping Industry: A Case Study of a Specific Port’s Costs, Emissions and Policies

  • 摘要: 在“双碳”目标与国际航运深度脱碳背景下,绿色燃料路径选择成为航运低碳转型核心问题。本文基于全生命周期视角,以我国20个代表性港口为样本,构建涵盖可再生能源建模、燃料成本核算与政策情景模拟的综合评估框架,对可再生氢、氨、甲醇与重油进行系统比较。研究表明,可再生燃料成本存在显著空间差异,电力成本为关键因素;氢与氨减排优势突出但经济性受限;在碳规制作用下绿色燃料竞争力明显提升。结果显示,近海场景中氢与甲醇具备竞争力,远洋以甲醇为主、氨具长期潜力。由此提出分阶段、分场景的绿色转型路径。

     

    Abstract: Under China’s dual-carbon goals and the deep decarbonization of international shipping, selecting appropriate green fuel pathways has become a central issue for low-carbon maritime transition. This study adopts a well-to-wake perspective and examines 20 representative Chinese ports, developing an integrated framework that combines renewable energy modeling, fuel cost assessment, techno-economic analysis, and policy scenario simulation. Renewable hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and conventional fuel oil are systematically compared across nearshore and deep-sea scenarios. Results show significant spatial variation in renewable fuel costs, primarily driven by electricity prices. Hydrogen and ammonia offer superior emission reduction potential but are constrained by current economic feasibility. With carbon regulations such as the EU ETS, the competitiveness of green fuels improves significantly. Methanol dominates in deep-sea scenarios, while hydrogen and methanol are competitive in nearshore contexts, and ammonia shows strong long-term potential. A phased and differentiated transition pathway is proposed accordingly.

     

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