基于系统分析方法的未来综合能源系统评价框架研究与探讨

Research and discussion on the evaluation framework of future integrated energy system based on system analysis method

  • 摘要: 能源系统集成连接电力、天然气、热量和运输系统,是灵活和经济有效地推动能源过渡的可能途径。当前研究仍然需要更多量化的证据来证明未来综合能源系统为实现政策目标的表现来支持这一观点。本文首先确定了能源系统在集成时的预期变化,提出了完整的能源系统方法来评价综合能源系统,包括多维、多向、系统、未来、全面和适用性特征。基于所确定的特征,本文回顾了现有的能源系统可持续性评价框架,并定性地评价了其对评价未来综合能源系统的充分性。研究结果表明,现有的框架难以评估综合能源系统的性能,单一的特征无法满足当下能源集成的多元化需求。最后提出了一种基于系统分析方法和基于指标的评价方法的整体评价框架,其中涵盖的六个特征能够在不同的系统层次上对多个视角和目标进行评价。此外,该框架捕捉到了整个能源系统体系结构的未来变化,并强调了能源系统之间的相互依赖关系,还可以系统地应用于不同上下文中的各种场景。

     

    Abstract: Energy system integration connecting electricity, natural gas, heat, and transportation systems is a possible way to flexibly and cost-effectively drive the energy transition. Current research still needs more quantitative evidence on the performance of future integrated energy systems to achieve policy goals to support this view. This paper first identifies the expected changes in energy systems at integration and proposes a complete energy system approach to evaluate integrated energy systems, including multidimensional, multidirectional, systemic, future, comprehensive, and applicability characteristics. Based on the identified characteristics, this paper reviews existing frameworks for evaluating energy system sustainability and qualitatively evaluates their adequacy for evaluating future integrated energy systems. The findings show that the existing frameworks are difficult to assess the performance of integrated energy systems and that a single set of characteristics cannot meet the diverse needs of energy integration today. Finally, a holistic evaluation framework based on a systems analysis approach and an indicator-based evaluation method is proposed, in which the six features covered are able to evaluate multiple perspectives and objectives at different system levels. In addition, the framework captures future changes in the overall energy system architecture and highlights the interdependencies between energy systems and can be systematically applied to various scenarios in different contexts.

     

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