双碳背景下中国核证自愿减排监管三方演化博弈及仿真分析

A tripartite evolutionary game and simulation analysis of Chinese Certified Emission Reduction regulation in a dual-carbon context

  • 摘要: 中国核证自愿减排(China Certified Emission Reduction,简称CCER)对实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。深入分析各参与主体之间的博弈关系,有助于揭示CCER市场中政府监管态度与参与企业及第三方之间的复杂互动,从而促进CCER市场的有效运作,推动低碳发展目标的达成以及“双碳”战略的顺利实施。本文从CCER市场主要参与主体的视角出发,构建了政府、参与企业和第三方审查机构之间的三方演化博弈模型,分析了各主体策略选择的演化稳定性,并研究了不同因素对策略选择的影响机制。同时,进一步研究了三方博弈系统均衡点的稳定特性,并通过模型仿真验证结果的可靠性,为政府优化CCER交易监管机制提供了政策建议。

     

    Abstract: China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) is of great significance to the realization of the "double carbon" target. In-depth analyses of the game relationship among the participants can help to reveal the complex interactions between the government's regulatory attitude and the participating enterprises and third parties in the CCER market, thus promoting the effective operation of the CCER market, the achievement of the low-carbon development goal, and the smooth implementation of the "dual-carbon" strategy. This paper constructs a three-party evolutionary game model between the government, participating enterprises and the third-party review body from the perspective of the main participants in the CCER market, analyses the evolutionary stability of the strategic choices of each participant, and investigates the influence of different factors on the strategic choices. Meanwhile, the stability characteristics of the equilibrium point of the tripartite game system are further studied, and the reliability of the results is verified through model simulation, which provides policy suggestions for the government to optimize the regulatory mechanism of CCER trading.

     

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