能源贫困、碳减排与收入增长基于夜间灯光数据的PVAR模型研究

Energy poverty, carbon emission reduction and income growthResearch on PVAR model based on night light data

  • 摘要: 基于2007—2019年中国省级面板数据构建面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,探究能源贫困、碳减排和收入增长之间相互影响的动态演变过程及其南北区域性差异。其中,采用夜间灯光数据衡量能源贫困,尽可能避免能源贫困评估结果受到主观因素影响;明确居民家庭能源消费边界,较为客观地计算与能源贫困相关的碳排放量。研究发现:碳减排与能源贫困缓解相互促进,但碳减排对北方地区能源贫困产生短暂的阻碍效应,能源贫困缓解对北方家庭碳减排产生更强的促进效应;收入增长与能源贫困缓解之间存在互馈效应,其中能源贫困对收入增长的影响具有滞后性,收入增长将会在短期内加剧北方地区能源贫困;收入增长促进家庭碳减排,但碳减排未对收入增长产生显著影响,且收入增长会导致南方家庭碳排放量的增加。

     

    Abstract: A Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model is constructed based on China provincial panel data from 2007 to 2019 to explore the dynamic relationships between energy poverty, carbon emission reduction and income growth and the difference between the northern and southern China. Energy poverty is measured by night light data to avoid the subjectivity of energy poverty assessment and the boundary of household energy consumption is clarified to calculate carbon emissions associated with energy poverty. The results show that carbon emission reduction and energy poverty alleviation promote each other. However, carbon emission reduction has a temporary hindering effect on energy poverty, and energy poverty has a stronger alleviating effect on household carbon emission reduction in northern China. There is a mutual feed effect between income growth and energy poverty alleviation where the impact of energy poverty on income growth has a delay feature, and income growth will temporary aggravate energy poverty in northern China. Income growth promotes household carbon emission reduction, but carbon emission reduction does not have a significant impact on income growth. Additionally, income growth will lead to a increase in household carbon emissions in southern China.

     

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