双碳目标下新能源合理利用率形势分析及政策建议

Situation Analysis and Policy Suggestions on Rational Utilization Rate of Variable Renewable Energy under the Dual Carbon Goal

  • 摘要: 在双碳目标的驱动下我国能源结构将发生根本性转变,高比例新能源接入将成为未来能源战略的必然选择。随着新能源装机占比越来越高,如何转变发展观念是我国新能源高质量发展面临的难题之一。当前,新能源利用率水平已经成为约束新能源发展的重要指标,各省迥然不同的电源结构、负荷特性和调节能力若一味以新能源全额消纳或较高的新能源利用率水平为目标势必将付出高昂的经济代价。为此,本文围绕双碳目标下新能源合理利用率形势分析及政策建议,讨论了双碳目标下新能源合理利用率的概念和特征,从系统层面梳理当前我国能源转型中制约新能源消纳的关键影响要素;同时考虑我国当前电力市场化改革,针对性提出双碳目标下引导新能源合理利用率形势分析及政策建议,以期为我国双碳目标下新能源产业健康、有序发展提供科学参考。

     

    Abstract: Driven by the dual carbon goal, China’s energy structure will undergo fundamental changes, and a high proportion of variable renewable energy (VRE) integration will become the inevitable choice of future energy strategies. With the increasing proportion of VRE installed capacity, how to change the concept of development is one of the difficulties faced by the high-quality development of VRE in China. At present, the level of VRE utilization has become an important indicator to restrict the development of new energy. If the power supply structure, load characteristics and regulation capacity of different provinces blindly aim at the full absorption of VRE or a higher level of VRE utilization, they will inevitably pay a high economic price. To this end, this paper focuses on the situation analysis and policy suggestions on the rational utilization rate of VRE under the double carbon goal, discusses the concept and characteristics of the rational utilization rate of new energy under the dual carbon goal, combs the key influencing factors that restrict the consumption of VRE in the current energy transformation of China from the system level, and at the same time, takes into account the current power market reform in China, and puts forward targeted situation analysis and policy recommendations of the rational utilization rate of VRE under the double carbon goal, with a view to provide scientific reference for the healthy and orderly development of the VRE industry under the dual carbon goal in China.

     

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