基于扎根理论的我国分布式光伏发电制约因素研究

Using Grounded Theory to Identify the Key Factors Constraining China’s Distributed Solar PV Development

  • 摘要: 大力发展分布式光伏,是加快我国能源转型升级、实现“双碳”目标的重要途径。中国光照资源充足,但截至2020年底,我国光伏发电装机占比仅11.52%,其中,分布式光伏占比为3.56%。为探究中国分布式光伏发展制约因素,本文在文献研究的基础上,首先运用扎根理论,识别出制约中国分布式光伏发展的各项因素,并对这些因素进行三级人工编码;其次,在各个制约因素之间建立了二元影响关系;再次,运用解释结构模型,将这些制约因素划分为五个层级,由此形成各层制约因素之间的影响路径;最后,基于解释结构模型所得出的分析结果,结合交叉影响矩阵相乘分析法,得出制约我国分布式光伏发展的关键因素是:空气问题,屋顶寿命问题,屋顶产权不明确,补贴资金不到位,政策未来不确定,电力辅助服务市场不成熟。

     

    Abstract: Vigorously developing distributed solar PV is an important way to accelerate China's energy transformation and upgrading and achieve the "dual carbon" goal. China has sufficient sunlight resources, but by the end of 2020 the installed capacity of solar PV accounted for only 11.52% of the total in the country, of which distributed solar PV account for 3.56%. This paper firstly uses grounded theory (GT) to identify various factors restricting the development of distributed solar PV in China, and performs three levels of manual coding for these factors; then, it established a dual influence relationship between the various constraints based on the literature research; after that, using the interpretive structure model (ISM) to divide these constraints into five levels, thus forming the path of influence between the various levels of constraints; finally, based on the analysis results of ISM, and adopting the MICMAC, the key factors restricting the development of distributed solar PV in China are identified: air problems, roof life problems, unclear roof property rights, insufficient subsidy funds, uncertain value in the future, and immature auxiliary power services market.

     

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