人才新政、房价波动与经济增长

New Talent Policy, House Price Fluctuation and Economic Growth

  • 摘要: 近年来,城市间的“抢人大战”越来越激烈,本文利用70个大中城市的数据,通过构建双重差分模型进行实证检验。研究表明:人才新政对房价波动与经济增长具有显著的正向影响作用,能够带动城市房价上涨和经济增长;在人才新政与经济增长的关系中,房价存在中介效应,人才新政能间接通过影响房价上涨,进而带动经济增长;房价波动具有负向调节人才新政与经济增长的作用,当房价较低时,会增强人才新政对经济增长的正向影响作用,当房价较高时,会减弱这种正向影响作用。因此,本文认为要坚持“房住不炒”的定位,权衡多种因素;实施差异化的人才新政,推动城市创新发展;完善人才制度,有效配置人才资源。

     

    Abstract: In recent years, the "competition for talent" between cities has become increasingly fierce. This paper uses data from 70 large and medium-sized cities to conduct an empirical test by constructing a double difference model. Studies have shown that the New Talent Policy has a significant positive effect on housing price fluctuations and economic growth, and can drive urban housing prices and economic growth; in the relationship between New Talent Policy and economic growth, house prices have an intermediary effect, and New Talent Policy can indirectly affect housing prices rise, which in turn drives economic growth; house price fluctuations have a negative effect on regulating the New Talent Policy and economic growth. When house prices are low, it will enhance the positive impact of New Talent Policy on economic growth, and when house prices are higher, it will weaken this Positive effect. Therefore, this article believes that we must adhere to the "no speculative housing" positioning, weighing a variety of factors, implement a differentiated new talent policy to promote urban innovation and development and improve the talent system and effectively allocate talent resources.

     

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