张素芳, 吕书贺. 基于系统动力学方法的碳市场拍卖比例对我国电源结构的影响研究[J]. 华北电力大学学报(社会科学版), 2020, 1(3): 16-25. DOI: 10.14092/j.cnki.cn11-3956/c.2020.03.003
引用本文: 张素芳, 吕书贺. 基于系统动力学方法的碳市场拍卖比例对我国电源结构的影响研究[J]. 华北电力大学学报(社会科学版), 2020, 1(3): 16-25. DOI: 10.14092/j.cnki.cn11-3956/c.2020.03.003
Zhang Su-fang, Lv Shu-he. The Influence of Different Allowance Allocation Auction Ratios on China's Power Supply Structure: A System Dynamics Approach[J]. JOURNAL OF NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIVERSITY(SOCIAL SCIENCES), 2020, 1(3): 16-25. DOI: 10.14092/j.cnki.cn11-3956/c.2020.03.003
Citation: Zhang Su-fang, Lv Shu-he. The Influence of Different Allowance Allocation Auction Ratios on China's Power Supply Structure: A System Dynamics Approach[J]. JOURNAL OF NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIVERSITY(SOCIAL SCIENCES), 2020, 1(3): 16-25. DOI: 10.14092/j.cnki.cn11-3956/c.2020.03.003

基于系统动力学方法的碳市场拍卖比例对我国电源结构的影响研究

The Influence of Different Allowance Allocation Auction Ratios on China's Power Supply Structure: A System Dynamics Approach

  • 摘要: 碳排放交易有助于将碳排放的环境和社会成本内部化,是缓解气候变化挑战和环境污染的关键解决方案之一。作为全球最大的二氧化碳排放国,中国一直在积极推动碳排放交易。经过几年的区域试点市场,2017年12月,中国宣布全国碳排放交易机制(ETS)将首先从电力行业开始。本文运用系统动力学方法,探讨了碳排放配额拍卖比例对我国电源结构可能产生的影响,为未来几年计划的设计提供政策思路。首先,建立了碳市场与电力市场之间的系统动力学模型。然后在模型中设置变量的参数并对数据进行处理,使用Vensim软件模拟四种拍卖比率情景下变量之间的关系,即0%、5%、50%和100%。结果表明,拍卖比例对可再生能源发电有较大影响,但对传统能源发电影响较小。

     

    Abstract: Carbon emissions trading helps to internalize the environmental and social costs of carbon emissions and is one of the key solutions to mitigate the climate change challenge and environmental pollution. As the world's biggest emitter of CO2, China has been actively promoting carbon emissions trading. Following several years of regional pilot markets, in December 2017 China announced its long-awaited national Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) which will first start with power sector. Using system dynamics approach, this paper explores the likely impacts of the auction ratios of carbon allowance allocation on China's power supply structure to provide policy insights for designing the scheme details in the coming years. First, a system dynamics model is built to establish the correlation between carbon market and power market. Then parameters of variables are set and data are processed in the model, and Vensim software is used to simulate the relationship between the variables under four scenarios of auction ratios, i.e., 0%, 5%, 50% and 100%. The results show that whilst auction ratio has great impacts on renewable energy generation, it has little impacts on conventional energy generation.

     

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